The NFL is back for Week 11 of the 2023 season as the Baltimore Ravens play host to the Cincinnati Bengals at the M&T Bank Stadium in this week’s edition of Thursday night football.
The Ravens are currently 7-3 for the season after their defeat at the weekend saw a four-game winning streak snapped, while the Bengals are 5-4 having seen their own four-game winning streak ended in their most recent outing.
We’ll take a look at the match-up and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action on the field.
NFL Week 11 Baltimore Ravens-195-195-200Cincinnati Bengals+170+165+170
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Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals information
Thursday, 16 November 2023
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
20:15 ET kick-off
Season so far
Baltimore have had a fantastic season so far, but it didn’t start out in the best way despite them winning their opening two games thanks to a 25-9 victory over Houston Texans before a 27-24 win over this weekend’s opponents Cincinnati in game week 2.
They suffered an overtime defeat to the Indianapolis Colts in week 3, before beating the Cleveland Browns 28-3 and then losing again to the Pittsburgh Steelers 10-17 in week 5 to make it a 3-2 start to the campaign for them.
Since then though they have been flying. A trip to London, England saw them defeat the Tennessee Titans 24-16, before wins over the Detroit Lions 38-6, Arizona Cardinals 31-24 and Seattle Seahawks 37-3 made it four wins in a row. Last time out though they were beaten by the Browns in a rematch from Game 4, losing 33-31 at home to end their win streak heading into this clash.
The Bengals have had a really mixed bag heading into this game, with a 5-4 record for the season leaving their playoff hopes up in the air barring a late charge.
They started the season with back-to-back defeats against the Browns and Ravens, before a 19-16 win over the Los Angeles Rams in game 3 to earn them their first win. That was quickly followed up by another defeat against the Titans as they were blown away 3-27.
However they bounced back from that with a four-game winning streak, with a bye week splitting it in half. They dominated the Arizona Cardinals to claim a 34-20 win and snuck past the Seattle Seahawks 17-13, before returning from their bye week to stun the San Francisco 49ers with a 31-17 win and then defeat the Buffalo Bills 24-18.
Last time out however they were beaten at home by the Houston Texans 30-27, where a poor second quarter ultimately cost them the game.
NFL picks: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ -113
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow continued his lack of success as a big favorite last week, falling to 2-7 ATS when his team has been favored by seven or more points. There is some trepidation fading Burrow in this spot, as he is 34-14-1 (71%) ATS in all other games. Still, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 11-4 SU in November or later against teams with a winning record, and the Ravens have a significant advantage of being the home team in a short week.
Entering last week, the Ravens had the third-best DVOA of any team through nine games since 1981, and Jackson’s play has had much to do with that. Jackson entered Week 10 with the most big-time throws (9) and highest passer rating when under pressure this season, and he is also the most accurate passer on attempts of 10-plus yards.
This is a three-star play, as the Ravens beat caliber playoff opponents like the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, and the Browns — in their first meeting — by a combined 103-12 before last week’s collapse. In addition, Jackson is 14-3 at home in the regular season in November or later.
The Ravens have held Burrow to a 3-3 TD-INT ratio and a 35.3 QBR or worse in three of the last four meetings, so the Ravens have everything leaning in their favor to cover this spread and get back on the winning trail at home.
Baltimore Ravens -3.5
to beat Cincinnati Bengals
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NFL picks: Over 44 total points @ -106
Both of these teams have been scoring a lot of points this season for the most part, and there is no reason that won’t be the case again in Baltimore this weekend.
When these two teams met in Week 2 of the season we saw 51 points scored combined with a pretty even split to show that both teams are capable of hurting the other, and that bodes well for this bet.
In ten games so far this season the Ravens are averaging 24.5 points scored per game, while defensively they are averaging 15.7 points conceded per game. Cincinnati on the other hand are averaging 20.2 points scored per game this season from their nine games, while they are averaging 21.3 points conceded per game.
Both teams should be able to hit their average points scored as a bare minimum in this game which would take us to 44 points for the game. That would leave us just one point short of the total and at -106, the value is excellent to back one team to slightly overperform for this ticket to cash.
Over 44 total points
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
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