A wonderful NFL season is finally hitting it’s climax as we hit the 58th edition of the Super Bowl LVIII when the Kansas City Chiefs look to defend their title against the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers have been the best team in the NFL this season and have the best regular season record, while the Chiefs have bounced back from a tough campaign to run rampant in the playoffs.
We’ll take a look at Sunday’s big game and pick out the best prop bets to give you our best free NFL picks, and see if we can earn you some extra cash for the end of the weekend.
NFL Super Bowl LVIII Kansas City Chiefs+107+105+107San Francisco 49ers-127-125-117
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NFL Super Bowl LVIII information
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 11th February 2024
Allegient Stadium, Paradisde, Nevada
18:30 ET kick-off
NFL Super Bowl LVIII prop bets
The Super Bowl is one of the biggest events in the sporting world every year, and that means plenty of markets to bet on outside of your standard betting opportunities.
Below are our favorite prop bets for the Super Bowl LVIII game.
Super Bowl Picks: Travis Kelce Over 71.5 receiving yards @ -120
Travis Kelce is probably the most important offensive weapon that Kansas City has once you look past the main man, Patrick Mahomes. The tight-end absolutely loves the post-season and has turned up in the big one before, so it would be no shock to see him do it again in Nevada.
So far this post-season, Kelce has caught 23 of his 27 receptions for 262 yards and three touchdowns. That’s an average of 87.3 receiving yards per game, and considering that Mahomes will no doubt look to him first and often the chances of him getting plenty of yardage again are strong.
The future Hall of Famer will have his hands busy with the 49ers’ solid group of coverage linebackers and safeties so he may not quite hit his average, but he should sail past this total.
Travis Kelce 71.5 receiving yards
Super Bowl Picks: Isaiah Pacheco Over 64.5 rushing yards @ -190
Pacheco’s hard-charging running style has inspired countless memes and admiration from players and fans alike, and this line from the bookies is surely too low.
The running back had a solid regular season, coming up just short of 1,000 rushing yards in 14 games and scoring nine touchdowns total, with seven coming on the ground. But he’s been even better during the playoff campaign.
Pacheco has been on a tear in the postseason, rushing for at least 68 yards in all three games with a rushing touchdown in each one.
Now he goes up against a 49ers rush defense that has been dominated on the ground recently. Both the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions ran over San Francisco, rushing for 111 yards and 182 yards, respectively. If that pattern continues here, Pacheco should float past this total with ease.
Isaiah Pacheco 64.5 rushing yards
Super Bowl Picks: Any team to score 30+ points @ +120
Both of these teams can score points, and they can score a lot of them.
San Francisco ranked second in the NFL this season with 28.9 points scored per game, and aren’t expected to have any injury issues ahead of the game. Kansas City, on the other hand, averaged just 22.1 points per game this season, but still ranked 15th, middle of the pack.
With Mahomes and Purdy both playing well and both teams so strong defensively, it means neither team will be relying on keeping it tight in a low-scoring game. Expect points, and this price on either team to hit 30+ is a beauty.
Any Team to score 30+ points
Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers
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Super Bowl Picks: Brandon Aiyuk Under 63.5 receiving yards @ -115
Brandon Aiyuk has been incredibly hit and miss this season and this number has blown hot and cold for him. In 18 games played, he has both hit and missed this number nine times.
The main issue for Aiyuk in this scenario is obviously Chiefs’ L’Jarius Sneed. He has been playing at a sensationally high level this season and it was a shock to everyone that he didn’t get the nod in the Pro Bowl for his performances.
Sneed had one of the higher shadow rates in the league, particular on opposing teams’ number 1 perimeter wideouts, and with Aiyuk more often than not lining up outside, expect Sneed to make him his focus in this game.
The Chiefs were one of the better teams in terms of allowing only 37.4% of targets to go to WRs lining up outside, per 4for4’s Connor Allen, so look for Sneed to limit Aiyuk here.
Aiyuk is always capable of making big plays, so there’s some obviously risk here. However, expect the 49ers to make use of their other stud players, namely Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, so they may not need Aiyuk as much.
In the biggest of big games, they’ll want to be trusting their more in-form players to deliver rather than relying on a 50/50 hope so the under looks a solid bet here.
Brandon Aiyuk 64.5 rushing yards