The 2023/24 NFL season has reached it’s climax as the current holders Kansas City Chiefs look to make it back-to-back titles against the San Francisco 49ers at Super Bowl LVIII.
Kansas had a mixed regular season but have turned up during the playoffs once again to make it four Super Bowl appearances in the last five years, while the 49ers have arguably been the best team in the league this season and appear in their first Super Bowl since 2020 – where they lost to the Chiefs.
We’ll take a look at the match-up and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action on the field.
NFL Super Bowl LVIII Kansas City Chiefs+107+105+107San Francisco 49ers-127-125-117
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Super Bowl LVIII information:
Sunday, February 11th 2024
Allegient Stadium, Paradise, Nevada
18:30 ET kick-off
Season so far
The 49ers started their season in sensational form with five straight victories over the Pittsburgh Steelers (30-7), LA Rams (30-23), New York Giants (30-12), Arizona Cardinals (35-16) and Dallas Cowboys (42-10).
But something seemed to change and San Francisco fell to three consecutive defeats as the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals before they had a bye week to recharge and reset.
They followed that up with six wins in a row by defeating Jacksonville Jaguars (34-3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27-14) and Seattle Seahawks (31-13), Philadelphia Eagles (42-19), Seattle Seahawks again (28-16) and Arizona again (45-29) before their streak was snapped by the Baltimore Ravens.
A dominant 27-10 win over the Washington Commanders followed before defeat to the Los Angeles Rams (21-20) saw them end the campaign with a defeat, although they had already earned a first-round bye in the playoffs by that point.
In the divisional round they took on the Green Bay Packers and claimed a strong 24-21 win to earn their place in the NFC Championship game.
The reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs stepped into the 2023 season with a trip to face off with the Detroit Lions, with many expecting a rout, but eventually suffering a shock come-from-behind defeat despite having led 14-7 at half-time.
Kansas bounced back in week 2 though against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 17-9 win, before week 3 saw the Chiefs romp to a 41-10 victory followed by a 23-20 win over the New York Jets in week 4, and then a dominant win over the Minnesota Vikings immediately after that in week 5.
Then came a 19-8 win over Denver Broncos in a poor quality game, before a strong 31-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers to stretch their win streak to six. But then in a second meeting with the Broncos they found themselves on the end of another shocking defeat, this time losing 24-9. They recovered in Germany with a 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins before a bye in week 10.
They had a rough patch at one point where they were well beaten by the Philadelphia Eagles 21-17 in week 11, before beating the Raiders 31-17 in week 12. They then lost two in a row as they fell to a 19-27 defeat to the Green Bay Packers and a 17-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
They followed that up with a win over the New England Patriots 27-17, before a Christmas Day defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders set them back again. They then picked up a comfortable 25-17 win against the Cincinnati Bengals, before ending the season with a 13-12 win over the Chargers.
That set up a Wildcard round clash against Dolphins, where they cruised to a 26-7 victory before a stunning 24-21 win over the Bills last time out put them in a fifth consecutive AFC Championship game. They then dominated the Baltimore Ravens to earn a fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years.
NFL picks: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 @ +100
Just in terms of the eye test, the 49ers needed loads of luck in the NFC Championship game to even be in this position.
Those types of plays simply aren’t going to happen against the Chiefs, who have yet to turn the ball over on offense this postseason. Plus, the 49ers have really struggled to stop the run in recent weeks against top sides.
For the entire season, the 49ers are 25th in rush EPA per play allowed and 27th in rushing success rate allowed.
Although the Chiefs managed only 2.8 yards per attempt on the ground in Baltimore, they thrived in earlier post-season games.
Against the Bills and Dolphins, who finished the regular season 17th and 16th in rush defense DVOA, they averaged 6.1 and 4.3 yards per rush, respectively.
Lastly, Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog for his career, and postseason underdogs that move by at least half a point are 69.2% ATS. Giving them a win is likely but back yourself in case it’s a super close game by taking them against the spread at EVS.
Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
vs San Francisco 49ers
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NFL picks: Over 47.5 total points @ -110
Since Mahomes took over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, these teams have met three times, including in the 49ers’ last Super Bowl appearance in 2020. All three of those games cleared 50 points.
The 49ers’ offense started slow in the NFC Championship, but QB Brock Purdy and Co. eventually showed why they finished the season as favorites.
These teams are playing their best football offensively at the best time, which should spell fireworks on Super Bowl Sunday. Defensively the Chiefs are solid defensively, but they’re more likely to go for a gun-fight than try to keep it tight and that should see the Over land.
Over 47.5 total points
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
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